Retention as predicted by a student profile at a Hispanic serving institution

Retention is high on the list of priorities for both college and university administrators, as well as policy makers. It raises the question what high school data are known before a student attends a college that are predictive of student retention? This study examined 3445 first-time-in-college students from three academic years. Predictors included, age, gender, ethnicity, admission status, high school GPA, ranking percentile, and ACT/SAT scores. The outcome variable was college retention. Data analyses involved chi-square of independence and logistic regression. Results indicated ranking percentile, ACT/SAT scores, and admission status were statistically significant for retention. However, the relationships were weak and the model did not increase predictive values for retention. Although some demographic information and pre-college variables can predict retention, the type of predictors needs to expand to provide a stronger predictive model. Admissions processes may need to consider non-traditional information to include for both admissions and retention prediction.