Retention and strategic enrollment management at a community college in Texas

Student enrollment at community colleges within the U.S. has remained flat or decreased for over a decade (AACC, 2019). Before COVID-19, community colleges had been experiencing a steady decline in enrollment for approximately ten years (Irwin et al., 2021). The purpose was to determine whether demographic, environmental, and academic variables depend on a student’s decision to stay enrolled at Texas Community College (TCC) [pseudonym] for cohort years 2018-2019 and 2020-2021. The study used a quantitative, non-experimental, retrospective design (Cronk, 2020) to examine a subset of archival student data from TCC, a large public college in Texas. The subset of archival data consisted of 1,242 student records from the fall 2018 academic year (before COVID-19) and 791 student records from the fall 2020 academic year (after COVID-19). The researcher used Jamovi statistical software to conduct a chi-square test of independence to examine relationships between (a) demographic, environmental, and academic variables and (b) a student’s decision to enroll. For 2018 and 2020, descriptive statistics were generated for each variable to obtain frequency distributions of the levels within each variable. The levels with the highest number of counts for each variable included the following: RQ1: age (18-23), enrollment status (part-time), educational goal (associate degree), ethnicity (Hispanic), gender (female); RQ2: financial aid (yes); and RQ3: GPA (0.00-1.00). Additional proportion analyses indicated that the proportions of all levels within each variable were unequal (p<.01). The chi-square test of independence was conducted to determine whether a statistically significant relationship existed between each of the seven variables and students’ decision to enroll in the subsequent semester. For 2018 and 2020, the variables of age (18-23), enrollment status (part-time), financial aid (receipt of financial aid- yes/no), and academic outcome (GPA) played a critical role in student retention. Statistically significant relationships were absent between students’ decision to enroll and the following variables: educational goal, ethnicity, and gender.